Context and Catalysts leading to the Escalation on June 13th 2025

On June 13th, 2025, Israel launched a large-scale strike on Iran, marking a major escalation in their long-standing conflict.

Israel’s June 13th strikes on Iran did not occur in isolation, it followed a series of developments that dramatically raised tensions between Israel and Iran in recent months.

Foremost is the long-running dispute over Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel views as an existential threat. After the United States withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018, Tehran expanded its uranium enrichment activities and curtailed cooperation with international inspectors[1].

By 2025, Western intelligence assessed that Iran had stockpiled highly enriched uranium potentially sufficient for several nuclear weapons, Iran maintained publicly that it wasn’t building a bomb[2]. This spring, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) formally censured Iran for the first time in over two decades, finding Iran in “non-compliance” with its safeguards under the Non-Proliferation Treaty[3].

The IAEA and Western powers were alarmed by new revelations of secret Iranian nuclear developments and Iran’s announcement that it was constructing a new underground enrichment facility at Fordow and upgrading centrifuges there. In early June, just days before the Israeli strikes, the IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution noting Iran’s violations, and Tehran reacted by vowing to further increase uranium enrichment and by stonewalling negotiations[4].

U.S. President Trump’s administration had been engaged in back-channel talks to reach a stricter follow-on agreement, which involved the Whitehouse issuing a “60-day ultimatum” for Iran to accept a deal[5]. That deadline passed without progress – according to President Trump, “today is day 61”[6]. It can be reasonably deduced that Israel viewed Iran’s continued nuclear activity beyond the 60-day deadline as crossing a red line, and as sufficient justification for pre-emptive military action.

At the same time, diplomatic pressure on Israel was building. Momentum had been growing in the West for a renewed push toward a two-state solution with the Palestinians. The U.S., France, and other key allies were becoming increasingly vocal in their frustration with Israel’s hardline approach, while Saudi Arabia and several European nations were preparing for an international conference that was widely expected to endorse Palestinian statehood as part of a broader regional peace deal.

Israel, which typically enjoys strong backing from Washington, appeared increasingly at odds with some of its key allies. With a major international conference approaching, expected to endorse a two-state solution, Israeli leadership may have calculated that striking beforehand would pre-empt mounting diplomatic pressure and refocus international attention on the threat posed by Iran.

Prime Minister Netanyahu framed the offensive as a last-resort act of self-preservation, invoking Israel’s doctrine of pre-emptive defence, the same logic behind Israel’s 1981 strike on Iraq’s Osirak reactor and a 2007 strike on a Syrian reactor, to justify attacking Iran’s program before it could yield a weapon[7].

Concurrently, shifting dynamics in the Middle East set the stage for this escalation. Over the past year, Iran’s regional position was weakened by setbacks to its allied militant groups and regimes, many of them inflicted by Israel. In late 2024, Israel launched large-scale operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, losing key commanders, equipment, and the ability to coordinate large attacks. The damage dealt was a major setback for Iran’s influence in the region[8].

Around the same time, Syria’s Iran-aligned ruler, Bashar al-Assad, fell from power, severing a key Iranian supply corridor and degrading Iran’s ability to strike Israel via Syria[9]. Israeli special operations also struck a major blow to Hezbollah’s leadership in September 2024, Israeli agents assassinated Hassan Nasrallah (Hezbollah’s long-time chief) in Beirut[10]. These events disrupted Iran’s regional network, weakening the proxy forces it had long depended on as a first line of deterrence against direct confrontation.[11].

With its regional allies weakened, Iran had fewer buffers against direct action. Israeli officials warned that Tehran might speed up its nuclear program in response, and Israeli intelligence reports suggested it was quietly moving closer to weapons-grade enrichment during negotiations with the U.S.[12].

By early 2025, Israel had begun covert preparations for a possible strike on Iran, according to an Israeli security source, Mossad commandos infiltrated Iran months in advance and “smuggled precision weapons and explosive drones” into the country. These assets were pre-positioned to cripple Iranian air defences at the moment of attack, a tactic that paid off, as Israel’s Air Force succeeded in destroying dozens of Iranian radars and surface-to-air missile launchers in the opening wave[13]. Israel also established a forward drone base near Tehran to support the strikes[14].

All of this suggest the strikes were not a spontaneous act but the result of months of preparation shaped by a combination of rising nuclear concerns, stalled diplomacy, shifting regional dynamics, and growing international pressure on Israel.

As diplomatic efforts faltered and Iran’s regional alliances weakened, Israeli planners appeared to conclude that the opportunity to act, with limited risk of a coordinated response, was narrowing. With intelligence assessments pointing to renewed nuclear activity and political space shrinking amid calls for a two-state solution, the June 13th operation was launched at a moment Israeli leaders likely viewed as strategically and diplomatically decisive.

Written by Aries Russell

Managing Director, Aries Intelligence

[1] CNN, “Israel hit Iran’s nuclear program – and Iran hit back. Here’s what we know,” June 13, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/13/middleeast/israel-attack-iran-nuclear-program-explainer-intl;

[2] Just Security, “The Strategic Stakes after Israel’s Opening Strikes on Iran,” June 13, 2025, https://www.justsecurity.org/114547/strategic-stakes-israels-opening-strikes-iran/#:~:text=activities%20with%20materials%20not%20declared,%E2%80%9D.

[3] The New York Times, “U.N. Watchdog Rules That Iran Is Not Complying With Nuclear Obligations,” June 12, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/12/world/middleeast/un-iaea-iran-nuclear-program.html;

[4] NPR, “Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear and missile sites, prompting retaliation from Tehran,” June 13, 2025, https://www.npr.org/2025/06/13/nx-s1-5432437/israel-attacks-iran-retaliation-nuclear#:~:text=Israel%27s%20attack%20on%20Iran%20comes,program%20is%20for%20peaceful%20purposes.

[5] Reuters, “World reacts to Israeli strike on Iran over nuclear programme,” June 13, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/world-reacts-israeli-strike-iran-over-nuclear-programme-2025-06-13/#:~:text=going%20to%20get%20hit,A%20lot%20more.

[6] CNN, “‘We fight or we die’: How days of frantic diplomacy and dire warnings culminated with Israel’s attack on Iran,” June 14, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/14/politics/israel-iran-attack-planning-trump;

[7] The New York Times, “Netanyahu Says Israel Will Fight Iran for ‘as Many Days as It Takes’,” June 13, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/12/world/middleeast/netanyahu-iran-israel-strikes.html;

[8] Institute for the Study of War, “Israel's Victory in Lebanon,” December 2, 2024, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/israels-victory-lebanon;

[9] Reuters, “Syrian rebels topple Assad who flees to Russia in Mideast shakeup,” December 7, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-rebels-celebrate-captured-homs-set-sights-damascus-2024-12-07/

[10] NPR, “Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear and missile sites, prompting retaliation from Tehran,” June 13, 2025, https://www.npr.org/2025/06/13/nx-s1-5432437/israel-attacks-iran-retaliation-nuclear#:~:text=Iran%20launched%20retaliatory%20strikes%20into,attack%20on%20Iranian%20nuclear%20sites.

[11] The New York Times, “Hezbollah Leader, Hassan Nasrallah, Killed by Israeli Strike at 64,” September 28, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/28/world/middleeast/hassan-nasrallah-hezbollah-dead.html;

[12] Reuters, “Damning IAEA report spells out past secret nuclear activities in Iran,” May 31, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iaea-report-says-iran-had-secret-activities-with-undeclared-nuclear-material-2025-05-31/

[13] CNN, “Israel's unprecedented attack shows Iran has become a 'playground' for Mossad,” June 13, 2025, https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/13/middleeast/israel-attack-iran-mossad-analysis-latam-intl;

[14] The War Zone, “Israeli Commandos Attacked Iranian Air Defenses With Drones From Inside The Country: Report,” June 13, 2025, https://www.twz.com/air/israel-hid-drones-missiles-around-iran-to-target-nuclear-facilities-and-more-report