Unusual Cargo Flights to Iran Raise Strategic Concerns

June 13, 2025

OSINT Suggests Covert Chinese Airlift Activity Toward Iran

Written by Baran Ayguven

China–Iran Cargo Flights Raise Questions After OSINT Tracking

As hostilities between Israel and Iran intensify, a troubling pattern of clandestine activity involving Chinese military cargo flights has emerged, raising questions over Beijing’s quiet involvement in the conflict. Open-source intelligence (OSINT) flight data reviewed over the past week since the Israeli attack on Iran shows a series of Cargolux transport aircrafts displaying suspicious flight behaviour enroute to Iran (Telegraph, 2025).

The flights, such as ICV7111, initially filed as heading to Luxembourg, appear to follow typical air routes until they come near the Turkmenistan-Iran border. At this point, the aircraft sharply reduces altitude to nearly 20,000 feet (roughly half the cruising altitude for this type of aircraft) before going dark by disabling their radars, effectively vanishing from public tracking systems like FlightRadar24. These disruptions consistently occur near Iranian airspace, strongly suggesting covert landings in Tehran or nearby military airfields under the cover of radar silence.

More recently, there have also been cases observed on the 18th of January at 2 a.m., when two Cargoflux planes flying from China to London and Luxembourg announced that they were diverting to Ashgabat and landing there, again potentially for military arms transportation to Iran. Lastly, the open-source air data shows one more flight from Zhengzhou, China, on the way, expected to reach Ashgabat by 10:50 local time.

The flights have thus far received no comment from Beijing, and Chinese state media has remained silent on any involvement of sending military support to Iran, but has expressed their diplomatic position regarding Iran’s right to defend itself from Israel (FMPRC, 2025).

While the load of these aircraft remains a mystery, given the available information, it is reasonable to infer that a risky act of support for Iran in a grey zone operation is unlikely to involve humanitarian aid, especially considering the effort taken to hide the fact of these transports.

Regardless, the fact that such last-minute flights are taking place suggests that these shipments are of significant strategic value, especially considering that China has avoided using container ships (a considerably more clandestine and cost-effective method) in favour of a more expensive, riskier, yet faster approach.

The exact contents of these flights remain unconfirmed. One possibility is the potential transfer of advanced Chinese weapon systems. In light of the growing possibility of U.S. involvement in the conflict, including the deployment of naval and aerial assets toward the Middle East region, Beijing may be seeing this as an opportunity. It is possible that China might be interested in leveraging the situation as a real-world testing ground for its military hardware against Western capabilities without becoming an overt party to the conflict.

It is also important to note that, if confirmed, these cargo planes carrying weapon parts would not mark the first time China has sent material used in Iran’s military industry. Just two weeks ago, The Wall Street Journal published a report on a recent sale from China to Iran of ammonium perchlorate, a key ingredient in Iranian ballistic missile fuel. The export was so huge that the experts stated that the quantity involved would be sufficient to produce approximately 800 ballistic missiles. (WSJ, 2025a). Another similar sale happened in January when China sold Iran a similar product that can be used to make fuel for around 260 missiles (WSJ, 2025b).

While nothing is certain yet, if these assumptions prove to be true, they would likely have significant implications for today’s geopolitics by drawing China and the U.S. into a more escalatory regional crisis.


Written by Baran Ayguven

Geopolitical Analyst, Aries Intelligence

Bibliography

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